More than $22 billion in investments in Mexico are moving forward in fits and starts amid lawsuits and rising USMCA pressure
A mix of trade uncertainty and regulatory bottlenecks is slowing key projects just as Mexico competes for nearshoring capital.
Mexico’s investment pipeline is going through a moment of contrasts: while the country remains attractive thanks to its proximity to the United States and its manufacturing integration, more than $22 billion in strategic projects are facing delays due to environmental litigation, regulatory red tape, and social tensions. The backdrop is more complex than in recent years: the USMCA review, the continuation of U.S. tariffs in sensitive sectors, and the debate over rules of origin have made companies more cautious about when and how to commit capital at scale.
In the early days of Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, a group of U.S. companies reaffirmed investment announcements totaling more than $20 billion. The gesture signaled continuity, but the actual execution timeline now looks more gradual. The most emblematic case is Mexico Pacific, which is proposing $15 billion for the Saguaro Energía liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal and the Sierra Madre pipeline. Although the company says it is maintaining contracts and permits, the initiative has not yet reached a Final Investment Decision (FID)—a key milestone that typically triggers large-scale financing and construction—partly due to environmental lawsuits and planning adjustments.
Another significant project, Royal Caribbean’s Perfect Day Mexico in Mahahual, Quintana Roo, also highlighted the weight of environmental regulation: the original proposal did not receive authorization, and the company chose to withdraw the design to rework it with a smaller footprint. In practice, the capital hasn’t disappeared, but timelines are stretching and uncertainty is rising in a sector—tourism—that competes globally for anchor projects that generate jobs and infrastructure.
Outside that package, Amigo LNG—presented in Sonora as part of the Plan Sonora with an estimated $6.3 billion investment—was halted by a court injunction that has kept the environmental authorization process on hold. The episode underscores an increasingly visible reality: even when there is investor interest and a favorable public narrative, execution can get trapped in court, in administrative procedures, or in community disputes.
Gas y Petroquímica de Occidente (GPO) in Topolobampo, Sinaloa, offers a contrast. After years of controversy, the ammonia plant remains under construction with federal backing and was incorporated into Plan México as a strategic project to strengthen the fertilizer supply chain. Still, progress coexists with opposition from Mayo-Yoreme Indigenous communities, fishermen, and environmental organizations, which continue to raise concerns about potential impacts on Ohuira Bay, mangroves, and fishing activity. For the market, the takeaway is clear: in Mexico, “execution risk” weighs as heavily as “country risk.”
The USMCA review and the new risk calculus for investment
A tougher North American trade debate has changed the profitability calculus for export-oriented projects. For Mexico, the USMCA has been a structural advantage by providing preferential access to the U.S. market, but the agreement’s review and the possibility of changes to rules of origin increase the incentive to “wait and see” before announcing expansions or new plants. This caution is compounded by domestic factors: limited infrastructure capacity in industrial hubs, water and energy stress in heavy-manufacturing regions, and regulatory timelines that can stretch when social or environmental conflict is high. Taken together, the message to investors is that it’s not enough to have competitive costs and logistical proximity; legal certainty and a clear permitting path are also needed for capital to translate into projects and jobs.
Regional competition has also intensified. According to figures circulated by UNCTAD, Latin America and the Caribbean increased foreign direct investment inflows in 2025, led by Brazil, with Mexico as the region’s second-largest recipient. However, the headline number comes with another signal: announcements of greenfield projects—new facilities or from-scratch expansions—fell sharply, including a notable drop in Mexico. In the nearshoring context, this suggests companies are reallocating their appetite: more reinvestment and incremental expansion where they already operate, and fewer from-scratch megaprojects, which are the most sensitive to permits, infrastructure, and local controversies.
For Mexico, turning pending investments into reality has macroeconomic and fiscal implications: more construction and procurement of inputs boosts activity in the short term; once operating, projects can raise exports, formal employment, and tax revenues. But they also open debates about sustainability, water use, waste management, and land-use planning. In energy and industry, the country faces the challenge of expanding electricity transmission capacity and ensuring a reliable supply; in logistics, modernizing ports and border crossings; and in governance, strengthening consultation and environmental mitigation mechanisms to keep projects from becoming hostages to endless litigation.
Looking ahead, Mexico’s ability to convert announcements into investment actually deployed will depend on two tracks moving in parallel: political and technical leadership capable of providing certainty during the USMCA review with the United States, and domestic management that shortens timelines without weakening standards—through clear rules, regulatory transparency, and institutional capacity to resolve disputes. In a global environment where capital is more selective, execution speed can be as decisive as market size.
Overall, Mexico retains competitive advantages thanks to its integration with the United States and its manufacturing base, but USMCA pressure and regulatory bottlenecks are turning multibillion-dollar projects into endurance races; unlocking them will be key to sustaining the nearshoring momentum.
