Mexico Avoids Recession with 0.2% Growth in Q1 2025

Mexico has managed to dodge a technical recession by reporting a modest growth of 0.2% in the first three months of 2025, according to preliminary data on the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product released by Inegi.

This slight increase, on a quarterly basis, was largely due to the strong performance of the agricultural sector, whose primary activities experienced a real increase of 8.1% compared to the previous quarter. This gain was able to offset the 0.3% decline in secondary activities, as well as the flat growth in tertiary activities, which include trade and services. Year-on-year, GDP grew 0.6% between January and March 2025. Primary activities led this growth with a 6% increase, followed by tertiary activities with a 1.3% rise. On the other hand, secondary activities saw a decrease of 1.4%, highlighting the ongoing weakness in the industrial sector. Thanks to these results, Mexico avoids falling into a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contractions, especially considering that in the fourth quarter of 2024, the Mexican economy experienced a contraction of 0.6% in its quarterly variation.

While this growth provides a temporary reprieve, it is crucial that economic policies focus on strengthening sectors that have shown weaknesses, particularly the industrial sector. Diversifying investments and emphasizing innovation are key to ensuring sustained long-term growth.