Record tax intake without a reform: which sectors are propping up SAT revenues

Tax revenues are rising due to enforcement and economic activity, with customs, manufacturing, and financial services among the main drivers.

Without a major tax overhaul, Mexico ended 2025 with federal tax collection at record highs, supported by the performance of key sectors and a more intensive strategy of oversight and compliance. According to figures from the SAT, the federal government brought in 6.04 trillion pesos in taxes—93.803 billion pesos more than budgeted—equivalent to 101.6% of the target.

The numbers confirm a trend that has taken hold in recent years: growth in tax revenues has depended less on sweeping legal changes and more on administrative improvements—collections efforts, audits, sector-by-sector reviews, and actions against tax evasion and avoidance. In a context of moderate economic growth, the composition of collections offers important signals about which activities contribute the most to public finances and which maintain a limited—or even negative—contribution due to the presence of subsidies.

Among the activities with the greatest weight in collections are imports of goods and services (customs), activities tied to Mexico’s states related to the provision of public goods and services, financial and insurance services, government activities and international organizations, manufacturing industries, and wholesale trade. This pattern aligns with the country’s productive structure: an economy tightly integrated into foreign trade, with a strong export-oriented manufacturing base and a services sector that dominates GDP.

The emphasis on customs is especially significant. When foreign trade momentum increases—or when controls and traceability of transactions are strengthened—VAT (IVA) and even excise taxes (IEPS) linked to imports tend to become more solid sources of revenue. At the same time, manufacturing often leads income tax (ISR) contributions due to its scale, relatively higher formality, and the weight of production chains that operate with ongoing accounting and auditing.

On the “under the microscope” side, the SAT has indicated that, given their weight in overall contributions, activities such as financial services, retail and wholesale trade, mining, and manufacturing remain a priority for review. Publishing average effective tax rates by sector serves as both a gauge and a benchmark to spot deviations; in practice, it can translate into notices to correct filings, submit amended returns, or respond to audits—particularly in industries with margins that are hard to substantiate or with complex deduction structures.

Who contributes the least—and why it matters for public policy

At the other end of the spectrum, the lowest-contributing activities include agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishing, and hunting—sometimes even showing a negative net contribution to the treasury due to subsidies and support programs. With a positive but small contribution are cultural, sports, and recreational services; corporate and enterprise management; electricity, water, and gas distribution by pipeline to final consumers; and temporary lodging and food and beverage services. This distribution does not necessarily imply low activity, but rather differences in formality, margins, tax treatment, incentives, and administrative capacity to document transactions. For public policy, the gap poses a persistent dilemma: expanding the tax base without disproportionately affecting sectors with high informality or social sensitivity, while also increasing progressivity and improving the quality of spending to strengthen the legitimacy of tax collection.

Breaking collections down by type of tax makes the map clearer: manufacturing leads in income tax (ISR), while VAT (IVA) and excise taxes (IEPS) are driven by what is collected through customs and through activities associated with state governments. In macro terms, this suggests that consumption patterns, energy prices, and the pace of foreign trade directly affect government cash flow—introducing volatility if the business cycle weakens or external conditions shift.

Looking ahead to 2026, the main implication is fiscal: the ability to sustain rising revenues without increasing rates or creating new taxes will depend on maintaining collection efficiency and avoiding enforcement that becomes a source of uncertainty for formal investment. In parallel, debates over public spending, priority programs, pension pressures, and infrastructure investment needs will continue to shape the question of whether Mexico does—or does not—need a reform that broadens the base, closes exemptions, and reduces reliance on revenue that is highly concentrated in certain sectors.

Overall, SAT data depict a stronger, better-managed revenue system, but also one concentrated in highly formal activities tied to trade and financial services. The challenge will be to sustain progress without slowing activity and, at the same time, narrow contribution gaps with a gradual, predictable strategy.