Cetes’ real return shrinks as inflation ticks back up: mixed signals for saving in Mexico

A gradual decline in Cetes yields, alongside inflation picking up again, narrows the real cushion for savers and revives the debate over maturities and strategy.

February’s close delivered a nuanced snapshot for people parking their money in government debt: yields on Treasury Certificates (Cetes) continued to edge lower across several maturities, while inflation showed an uptick that tightens the real gain on these investments. This is happening as the market continues to recalibrate expectations following the latest monetary policy moves by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).

In the first half of February, annual headline inflation came in at 3.92%, within the range consistent with the price-stability target, but above prior readings. At the same time, the “premium” Cetes offer over price increases has been shrinking: while they still deliver nominal returns above inflation, the real buffer no longer looks as comfortable as it did when disinflation was more pronounced.

Cetes—benchmark instruments for conservative savers—are issued at a discount: the investor pays less today than the face value (10 pesos per security) and receives the full amount at maturity; the difference is the return. On the short end, the 28-day Cete hovered around 6.83% annualized; the 91-day, near 7.05%; and longer tenors came in around 7% to 7.5% across the available benchmarks. Beyond the exact number, the key signal is the trend: the market is pricing in that rates could continue to normalize as inflation converges, though with bouts of volatility.

For personal finances, the key is to distinguish between nominal return and real return. A practical way to approximate the real return is to subtract annual inflation from the instrument’s yield. With inflation near 4%, a 6.8% Cete offers an estimated real spread of just under 3 percentage points before taxes and without factoring in reinvestment; if inflation rises or the yield falls, that spread narrows.

What’s moving the curve: inflation, expectations, and the cost of money

The mix of falling yields and inflation that refuses to drop in a straight line typically reflects shifting expectations: market participants see Banxico keeping a restrictive stance for as long as needed, but they also anticipate that, as core inflation continues to cool, the central bank would have room to gradually ease the policy rate. In Mexico, that balance is especially sensitive to shocks in energy and food, seasonality in services, and wage dynamics—which in recent years have posted meaningful increases and can feed into prices if not matched by productivity gains.

In addition, the fiscal and growth backdrop affects perceived risk and, by extension, the rate at which the government finances itself. In 2026, the market remains focused on the deficit trajectory, consolidation plans, and the composition of public spending—factors that can influence demand for government instruments and the shape of the yield curve. In the near term, peso-denominated debt remains a core low-risk asset for local investors, but its relative appeal increasingly depends on how much the saver “earns” above inflation.

For small investors, the implications are straightforward: if the goal is liquidity, shorter maturities allow for faster reinvestment as rates move; if the goal is to lock in a yield, longer maturities can provide stability, though at the cost of being “locked in” if conditions improve later. In a stop-and-go disinflation environment, laddering across maturities—staggering maturities—often helps balance flexibility and yield.

Looking ahead, the risk balance isn’t settled. If inflation eases again in the coming months, yields could keep adjusting lower gradually; if additional pressures emerge—such as supply shocks, logistics costs, or stickier services inflation—rate cuts could be more cautious and the curve could stabilize or even move higher in certain segments. For savers, that reinforces the importance of assessing the expected real rate, not just the nominal one.

In short, Cetes remain a gauge of the cost of money in Mexico and a defensive option for preserving purchasing power, but the inflation uptick and the gradual decline in yields are squeezing the real margin; the choice between maturities and reinvestment will become increasingly relevant in 2026.