Registered Employers with IMSS Fall in March, Raising Red Flags About Economic Activity
The drop in registered employers coincides with slower growth and puts pressure on formal job creation in 2026.
The number of employers registered with the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) declined in March, a move that adds to signs that Mexico’s economic momentum is cooling and that companies—especially micro and small businesses—are less willing to maintain or expand operations within the formal sector. During the month, the employer registry fell by 1,726 registrations, implying a year-over-year decline of 2.7%.
IMSS attributed the decline to the “implementation of security measures in the opening of employer registrations for individuals,” without providing further detail. Analysts often note that administrative adjustments like these can affect the pace of new registrations, but the persistence of monthly declines suggests the phenomenon is also tied to more challenging economic conditions, elevated operating costs, and greater caution around hiring.
According to figures reported as of the end of the first quarter, IMSS maintained around 1.02 million registered employers. Recent trends show that the total number of employers has posted monthly declines in 22 of the last 23 months and an accumulated year-over-year drop of tens of thousands of registrations—an important data point because the employer count serves as a barometer of the business base that supports jobs with social security coverage.
In parallel, formal employment continued to grow, but with signs of slowing. In March, 32,930 jobs with social security coverage were created, and for 2026 to date, 207,604 new positions were recorded, with permanent jobs accounting for the majority. However, when isolating the effect of new labor-incorporation modalities, the year-over-year growth looks more moderate, reinforcing the view of a labor market that is still advancing, but at a slower pace.
On wages, the average contribution base salary came in at 663.50 pesos per day, up 7.14% year over year. After accounting for inflation, the real increase was around 2.5%—a gain that supports the purchasing power of workers who remain in the formal economy, though it does not necessarily offset rising costs for inputs, rents, logistics, and financing that many businesses face.
Employers Trending Down: What It Could Mean for Formalization
A decline in the number of registered employers is often associated with business closures, mergers, restructurings, or a shift toward less formal arrangements—especially when the environment combines limited economic growth with stricter compliance requirements. In Mexico, where labor informality remains high, any weakening in the employer registry can translate into less capacity to generate jobs that include benefits. In addition, the decline in employers tends to be concentrated among microbusinesses and family-run firms—segments that are more sensitive to changes in sales, interest rates, and labor costs, and that typically have less room to maneuver during periods of weaker demand.
The macroeconomic backdrop helps put the data in context. After GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025—one of the weakest performances since the pandemic—expectations for 2026 have ranged from caution to moderate optimism. The Ministry of Finance has set an expansion range of 1.8% to 2.8%, supported by a gradual rebound in investment and infrastructure projects; by contrast, surveys of analysts typically anticipate more restrained formal job creation toward year-end.
The path of employment and the number of employers will also be shaped by factors such as the trajectory of interest rates—which affects the cost of business credit—investor confidence, domestic consumption trends, and the performance of sectors tied to manufactured exports. Added to this is regulatory and trade uncertainty linked to review and negotiation processes in North America, which can delay investment or expansion decisions, particularly in integrated industrial supply chains.
Looking ahead, a key question will be how much of the decline in employers reflects administrative measures and how much reflects a deeper economic adjustment. If data cleanup or tighter controls reduce improper registrations, the effect could stabilize; but if the trend reflects weakening business conditions, the impact could show up in fewer worker registrations and slower progress on formalization.
Overall, the March data reinforces a mixed reading: formal employment is still growing and real wages are still rising, but the employer base is showing fragility. The second quarter’s trajectory will be decisive in confirming whether this is an administrative dip or an early sign of a broader slowdown in economic activity.
