Cetes Fall in April, Reshaping the Appeal of Saving in Mexico as Inflation Stays Above Target

The drop in Cetes rates trims the real “cushion” against inflation and forces savers to compare maturities and liquidity alternatives—without losing sight of Banxico’s direction.

Yields on Mexico’s Treasury Certificates (Cetes) extended their decline in the second-to-last week of April, in an environment where inflation remains above the central bank’s target and the market is once again recalibrating the path of monetary policy. While these instruments still offer a nominal rate above the annual increase in prices, the recent pullback narrows the saver’s real return margin, especially at shorter maturities.

In the latest auction, the 28-day Cete came in at 6.55%, down 0.05 percentage points from the prior event. The only maturity that posted an uptick was the 91-day, which rose 0.05 points to 6.75%. By contrast, the 182-day yield stood at 6.85% and the two-year instrument was set at 7.92%, with steeper cuts in that segment—suggesting shifts in expectations for future rates and greater sensitivity to macroeconomic scenarios.

The move comes as headline inflation reached 4.59% year over year in March, above the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) 3% point target and outside the variability band. In this context, the real yield—a simple approximation calculated by subtracting inflation from the nominal yield—shrinks as rates fall or if the price index re-accelerates. With the data available, the 28-day Cete would offer a spread of roughly two percentage points over annual inflation, but that “cushion” could compress if pressures in food and energy persist or if external shocks take hold.

For retail investors, Cetes’ appeal still rests on three factors: liquidity, low credit risk as federal government debt, and accessibility (with a face value of 10 pesos and issued at a discount). However, the downward trend requires closer attention to the maturity selected: short-term tenors offer flexibility, but they’re the first to reflect rate cuts; longer maturities typically embed more uncertainty and can move sharply when expectations around inflation and monetary policy shift.

What the Market Is Pricing In: Sticky Inflation, Gradual Cuts, and Appetite for Duration

The mixed performance across maturities suggests a market that, on one hand, still expects gradual cuts to the policy rate as inflation converges, but, on the other, remains cautious about risks that could delay that process. In Mexico, Banxico has emphasized a data-dependent stance: the pace of disinflation, the behavior of services (traditionally more rigid), the exchange rate, and the pass-through of costs into final prices. When the market believes cuts could continue but at a cautious pace, it tends to adjust the short end of the curve more quickly (such as 28 days). And if participants also hedge against scenarios of higher inflation or global uncertainty, moves in longer maturities can be larger, as seen in the two-year segment.

Global factors add to the picture: shifts in risk appetite, bouts of geopolitical volatility, and the interest rate differential versus advanced economies. For years, Mexico has maintained a meaningful rate “premium” that has supported demand for peso-denominated instruments; however, as that differential narrows, some flows may become more selective and demand greater compensation for maturity or volatility, influencing how rates are set at auctions.

From the saver’s perspective, the practical takeaway is that Cetes remain a defensive benchmark within a portfolio, but not necessarily the best option across all time horizons. Those prioritizing liquidity may prefer shorter maturities even at a lower rate; those looking to lock in yields for longer face the dilemma of securing a rate that could end up looking attractive if inflation falls faster, or insufficient if prices prove reluctant to ease and rates stay high for longer.

In the coming months, Cetes’ performance will be shaped by the balance between disinflation and upside risks to prices, as well as Banxico’s tone regarding the pace of policy-rate adjustments. A stickier inflation scenario would imply relatively high rates for longer, while sustained price moderation would create room for additional cuts—and therefore lower nominal yields on short-term instruments.

In short, April’s decline in yields doesn’t eliminate Cetes’ appeal as a low-risk instrument, but it does reduce the real return available and increases the importance of choosing maturities with discipline and realistic expectations around inflation and monetary policy.