Private Analysts Warn That Internal Uncertainty Is Limiting Mexico’s Economic Growth

The ongoing environment of internal uncertainty remains a major concern for private analysts when assessing the Mexican economy, according to the latest monthly survey by Banco de México (Banxico). The specialists surveyed point to the lack of structural changes as an additional obstacle to the country’s sustained growth, in a context where economic forecasts show modest progress.

The median forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2024 was adjusted slightly downward, standing at 0.18% in the June edition, compared to the 0.20% estimated in May. This reduction confirms experts’ caution in the face of internal factors, such as uncertainty in the political landscape and the persistence of structural challenges in fiscal, regulatory, and rule-of-law matters.

Regarding inflation, analysts raised their projections, now anticipating a year-end 2024 rate of 3.9%. This outlook reflects a combination of price pressures seen in both the food and services sectors, along with external factors such as ongoing international volatility in energy and food prices, which have impacted Mexican inflation in recent years.

Meanwhile, monetary policy expectations indicate that the benchmark interest rate could close the fourth quarter of 2025 at 7.50%, according to the median of projections gathered by Banxico between May 14 and 28 of this year. This relatively high level suggests the central bank will maintain a restrictive stance to contain inflationary pressures, even if this results in a slowdown of economic activity.

The outlook drawn by private analysts highlights the need to advance structural reforms that boost productivity and competitiveness in Mexico’s economy, at a time when external factors—such as the relocation of companies (nearshoring) and developments in the U.S. economy—could open up new growth opportunities if the right conditions are put in place.

In summary, the specialists’ viewpoint makes it clear that internal uncertainty and the absence of substantive changes continue to limit Mexico’s growth rate. In the face of a scenario marked by moderate growth and persistent inflationary pressures, the national economy faces the challenge of implementing policies that build confidence, attract investment, and allow it to capitalize on the potential of emerging sectors in the years to come.