Record Gains in Afores During 2025 Boost Retirement Savings; 2026 Points to Higher Volatility
In 2025, Mexico’s retirement fund managers (Afores) posted gains of more than one trillion pesos—the largest amount ever recorded in the Retirement Savings System (SAR), according to data from the National Commission of the Retirement Savings System (Consar). The jump far exceeded the previous year’s result and reflected an unusually favorable financial backdrop: rallies in international equity markets, fixed-income portfolio appreciation driven by falling rates, and the benefits of global diversification in portfolios.
Based on Consar’s reported figures, 2025 gains totaled 1 trillion 141.766 billion pesos. In practical terms, that performance is credited to workers’ individual accounts, since gains (and losses, when they occur) are reflected directly in the balance each person accumulates for retirement. In a defined-contribution system like Mexico’s, market performance and consistent contributions are key determinants of the final pension amount.
The outcome was driven by two main engines. On one hand, the rise in global stock markets and an investment narrative focused on technology and artificial intelligence lifted several equity indexes. On the other, Mexico’s rate-cut cycle increased the price of bonds already held in portfolios—a typical dynamic when the cost of money declines—benefiting fixed-income valuations. Added to this was the growing role of the international investment allowed under the investment framework for the generation-based Siefores, which has become increasingly important for cushioning local risks.
For workers, the effect is straightforward: a better year in the markets translates into a higher account balance and, as a result, better odds of reaching a larger pension—so long as contributions remain steady and the savings horizon is long-term. Still, industry specialists often stress that one year of returns does not guarantee future performance: retirement savings are built over decades of contributions, fees, returns, and—above all—steady formal employment and wage growth.
The 2025 performance comes at a time when Mexico’s pension system is undergoing structural changes. The 2020 reform gradually increased mandatory contributions, which over time will raise the flow of savings into individual accounts, though its full impact will be felt in stages. At the same time, a fundamental challenge remains: high labor informality limits the number of workers who contribute continuously, which reduces contribution density and puts pressure on future pension levels—even in years with strong returns.
Looking to 2026, the outlook appears less smooth. In Mexico, market attention will remain focused on growth—which has shown signs of cooling—the path of inflation, and monetary policy decisions by Banco de México. Abroad, trade uncertainty and the USMCA review, as well as the U.S. economic cycle (Mexico’s main trading partner), could influence the exchange rate, investment, and risk appetite. In that context, fund managers expect a more volatile environment, where diversification across geographies and asset classes becomes even more important to soften correction episodes.
It is also likely that the public debate will center on pension adequacy. While strong gains help, they do not replace the need for higher contributions and a formal work history. For many workers, voluntary contributions and shifts in personal financial habits—such as reducing high-cost debt and increasing systematic saving—can be just as important as short-term market performance. Likewise, financial education and periodically reviewing account statements remain key tools for tracking contributions, fees, and activity.
In short, the record gains in 2025 strengthen retirement savings balances and confirm how much rate cycles and global markets matter for individual accounts. However, the 2026 environment suggests a more challenging path ahead, in which volatility may return and performance will depend both on Siefores’ diversification and on macroeconomic variables—growth, inflation, and trade—that will set the pace for Mexico’s economy.
