Mexico Kicks Off 2026 With Rising Exports, but Faster Import Growth Widens the Trade Deficit

January’s export rebound contrasted with a larger increase in imports and a pullback in oil, pushing the trade balance into deficit.

Mexico’s external sector started 2026 with gains in exports, driven mainly by manufacturing, though with a meaningful shift in the trade balance due to faster import growth. In January, total exports totaled $48.008 billion (USD), an annual increase of 8.1%, according to the trade balance released by Inegi, in a context where external demand—especially from the United States—continues to be an anchor for domestic industry.

Export performance was supported by manufacturing, which accounted for most shipments at $43.508 billion and an annual increase of 9.4%. Within that category, segments tied to machinery and equipment for various industries posted a notable jump, alongside gains in mining-metallurgy and metal products. Non-oil exports rose 9.8%, underscoring the importance of industrial supply chains integrated across North America.

Reliance on the U.S. market remained: more than 82% of non-oil exports went to the United States, with annual growth of 7.9%. Even so, shipments to the rest of the world grew 19.6%, a sign that some production lines are gaining more traction outside the main trading partner, albeit from a smaller base. Structurally, the export basket remains dominated by manufactured goods, which represented 90.6% of the total.

The sector breakdown was mixed. The auto sector posted a 9% annual decline, hit by lower sales to the United States, though with a rebound toward other destinations. This comes as the industry adjusts inventories, model mix, and production schedules, in an environment where the shift toward vehicles with higher technological content and the normalization of supply chains continue to reshuffle trade flows.

On the energy side, oil exports fell 33.5% year over year, with sales of $1.111 billion, pressured by a lower price for the Mexican export blend (an average of $55.34 per barrel) and a reduction in export volumes. In parallel, agricultural and livestock exports declined 11.6% due to lower sales of products such as tomatoes, avocados, and strawberries, though with exceptions like mango, which posted strong growth. By contrast, non-oil extractive exports increased 81.1%.

Stronger Imports: A Sign of Input Demand, but Also a Watchpoint for Investment

Imports grew more than exports and set the tone for the trade balance: in January they rose to $54.489 billion, a 9.8% annual increase. The boost came from intermediate goods, up 14.2% and representing 79.2% of the total—often interpreted as stronger demand for manufacturing inputs and export-linked production. This pattern is consistent with Mexico’s role as an assembly and industrial transformation platform within regional supply chains.

However, other components suggest caution. Imports of consumer goods fell 3.8%, partly tied to lower fuel purchases, while capital goods imports declined 4.4%. The latter category typically serves as a thermometer of productive investment; its weakness may indicate that companies are postponing expansion decisions or machinery upgrades, amid financing costs that remain high by historical standards and greater selectivity in project approvals.

With these moves, the trade balance posted a deficit of $6.481 billion in January, a shift from the $2.430 billion surplus seen in December. The month-to-month deterioration reflected a weakening in the non-oil balance, which moved from surplus to deficit. In the short term, year-end and early-year changes are often influenced by seasonality and inventory rebalancing; even so, the size of the adjustment underscores that faster import momentum can widen deficits when export growth does not keep pace.

Looking ahead to the coming months, external-sector performance will remain closely tied to the U.S. industrial cycle and the evolution of energy prices. Mexico’s ability to turn the relocation of production processes (nearshoring) into more than announcements will also matter—especially if it translates into actual investment and into capital goods imports. From a macro perspective, a trade deficit is not necessarily negative in itself if it is linked to greater investment and productive integration; the caution flag emerges when the decline in capital goods persists.

In sum, January showed a solid start for exports, driven by manufacturing and with the United States as the main destination, but it also made clear that the strength of imports—especially inputs—can pressure the trade balance, while the oil component and some agricultural exports subtract. Tracking investment and external demand will be key to understanding whether this start strengthens or cools in the first quarter.