Mexico Sets a Record for FDI in 2025, but the Year-End Close Shows Signs of Caution

Mexico posted its highest annual inflow of FDI, even as the last quarter showed outflows tied to corporate adjustments and intercompany flows.

Mexico closed out 2025 with a record-high level of foreign direct investment (FDI), attracting $40.871 billion, according to figures from the Ministry of Economy. The annual performance came amid a challenging international backdrop—with bouts of trade tension and heightened corporate sensitivity to regulatory changes and logistics costs—reinforcing the view that the country remained a relevant platform for productive capital linked to North America.

On a yearly basis, FDI rose 10.8% versus the figure originally reported at the end of 2024, marking five straight years of gains. For the economic authority, the result stands out against a context in which flows to developing economies were weak, consistent with international estimates pointing to a moderation in risk appetite and a reallocation of capital toward projects with more immediate returns.

The breakdown by source confirmed the United States as the top investor, with $15.877 billion, equivalent to 38.8% of the total. It was followed by Spain ($4.431 billion; 10.8%) and Canada ($3.323 billion; 8.1%), then the Netherlands ($2.387 billion; 5.8%) and Japan ($2.293 billion; 5.6%). In a year when supply chains continued to be reshaped, the weight of the U.S. and Canada underscores the logic of regional integration, while the presence of Europe and Japan reflects diversification strategies and market access.

By destination, Mexico City captured $22.381 billion—54.8% of national FDI—cementing its position as the leading recipient. Nuevo León ($3.628 billion) and the State of Mexico ($3.279 billion) rounded out the top spots. The capital’s concentration is often explained by the location of corporate headquarters, financial services, and decision-making centers, though it can also inflate the accounting record of investments that are ultimately executed in other states through subsidiaries.

The Record Was Driven More by Reinvestment Than by New Projects

The annual figure came with an important nuance: most of the FDI came from reinvested earnings by companies already operating in the country. In 2025, reinvestments totaled $27.649 billion—nearly seven out of every ten dollars attracted. New investments reached $7.377 billion, an increase from the prior year, but still a smaller share of the total. This pattern suggests that companies with operations in Mexico maintained or increased their commitment—possibly due to integration advantages with the United States and already-installed industrial capacity—while the arrival of “greenfield” projects, or fully new builds, continues to face a slower maturation process.

For analysts, the takeaway is twofold: on the one hand, reinvestment is often a sign of operational continuity, expansion of production lines, and confidence in expected demand; on the other, a low share of new investment may indicate that some entry decisions still depend on regulatory clarity, the availability of infrastructure (energy, water, logistics), certainty around permits, and implementation timelines. In capital-intensive sectors, those factors can matter as much as labor costs or the exchange rate.

The year-end, however, introduced a different signal. In the fourth quarter, a negative flow of $5.026 billion was recorded, a result that contrasted with the rest of the year. The explanation centered on financial movements between parent companies and subsidiaries—the so-called intercompany accounts—linked to internal payments, debt adjustments, or capital reorganizations within multinational corporations.

These kinds of outflows do not necessarily imply an immediate pullback in productive activity, but they do serve as a reminder that FDI includes financial components that can shift quickly in response to changes in global interest rates, liquidity needs, or corporate treasury decisions. In practice, there can be a gap between what is recorded as a quarterly flow and what is happening on the ground in physical investment, hiring, or capacity expansion.

Looking ahead, Mexico’s challenge will be to turn the environment of integration with the United States and supply-chain relocation into a greater volume of new projects, while also reducing geographic concentration. In a scenario of moderate growth, the consistency of FDI will depend on the country preserving investor certainty, strengthening infrastructure and energy supply, and improving productivity to sustain competitiveness beyond the cycle.

In short, 2025 delivered a record FDI figure supported mainly by reinvestments, with the United States as the leading source and Mexico City as the largest recipient; however, the stumble in the last quarter suggests caution and underscores the importance of promoting more new, long-term investment.