Sabadell Stays the Course in Mexico: Sees Room to Grow in Corporate Banking Despite Global Caution
Amid more selective international investment, the reshaping of supply chains, and recurring debate over the future of the USMCA, Banco Sabadell reiterated that Mexico will remain a strategic pillar of its long-term plan. The Spanish lender believes the country still has structural advantages—proximity to the United States, favorable demographics, and a diversified industrial base—that support growth opportunities, particularly in corporate, investment, and specialized financing.
Group executives noted that after a decade operating in the country, the Mexican franchise is profitable and still has room to increase market share through a gradual approach. The bank says its goal is not to expand at any cost, but to grow with disciplined risk management, prioritizing projects with genuine repayment capacity in an environment that, while more stable on inflation, still faces external volatility.
The bank’s view comes at a time when nearshoring—while it hasn’t vanished—has been moving at an uneven pace. Expectations for industrial relocation to Mexico have run into pauses due to political uncertainty in the United States and internal bottlenecks such as the availability of energy and water, security issues along certain logistics corridors, and infrastructure constraints. Even so, the institution expects supply-chain adjustments to continue, and with them the need for credit for industrial parks, transportation, warehousing, and suppliers’ working capital.
On the macro front, Sabadell’s message aligns with a backdrop in which Mexico’s growth has lost momentum compared with recent years, but still retains important buffers: a well-capitalized banking system, a central bank with a credible anti-inflation mandate, and an external sector tightly linked to the U.S. manufacturing cycle. With inflation now far from its 2022–2023 peaks and a rate path more compatible with productive investment, the discussion has shifted toward the balance between financing costs, domestic demand, and the pace of infrastructure works.
On lending, the bank underscored a point that remains central to the Mexican economy: low financial penetration, especially among small and midsize businesses. The challenge isn’t just banks’ risk appetite; informality, weak accounting, lack of collateral, and information asymmetries also drive up the cost of financing. In that context, Sabadell said it will not loosen underwriting standards to accelerate growth—a stance that matters after the high-rate cycle, when businesses and households became more sensitive to debt payments.
By sector, Sabadell flagged opportunities in hospitality—expanding beyond traditional destinations and growing in markets such as Los Cabos or the Riviera Nayarit—energy, agribusiness, and commerce tied to logistics real estate and warehouses. Energy stands out for its economy-wide impact: without greater generation capacity, transmission, and regulatory certainty, industrial projects can be delayed or become more expensive. The bank said some investments are waiting for clearer rules and permits, and that as bottlenecks ease, capital flows toward projects linked to industrial demand could pick up again.
The institution also highlighted internal progress in business-focused digitalization—not just channels, but process automation, operating speed, and cost reductions. In Mexico’s banking sector, that trend is consistent with intensifying competition from digital players and with customers increasingly accustomed to electronic payments, instant transfers, and online treasury solutions. Looking ahead, the adoption of artificial intelligence tools—paired with proper controls and compliance—could boost efficiency in risk analysis, fraud prevention, and service for corporate clients.
On the corporate side, Sabadell downplayed the likelihood of an acquisition after BBVA’s bid failed to move forward in 2024. Group management said its strategy has not changed and that its priority remains executing its roadmap, with an emphasis on profitability and capital generation—factors that also shape how much it can expand in markets like Mexico without compromising solvency metrics.
Going forward, corporate banking performance in Mexico will hinge on three variables: the outcome of the USMCA review and the regional investment climate; how quickly energy and infrastructure bottlenecks are addressed; and the path of rates and inflation, which determines financing costs and project viability. In a more fragmented global environment, Mexico’s geographic advantage can sustain productive flows, but follow-through will depend on certainty and execution capacity.
Overall, Sabadell is betting on Mexico with a continuity narrative: gradual growth, disciplined lending, and a focus on sectors where it sees structural demand. The signal matters because it reflects how a foreign bank weighs the country’s opportunity-risk tradeoff: Mexico retains clear appeal thanks to its integration with North America, but the pace of investment and financing will depend on unlocking domestic conditions—especially energy and infrastructure—and on political and economic developments in the United States.
