Banamex bets on brokers and sees a mortgage rebound by 2026

Home lending slowed as housing got more expensive, and banks expect lower rates and greater certainty to revive demand.

Amid moderate economic growth and a housing market squeezed by rising prices, Banamex is doubling down on its strategy to gain share in mortgage lending by launching a platform aimed at brokers. The goal is to increase origination volume in a segment that in 2025 posted one of its weakest expansions in decades, reflecting the clash between higher home prices and households’ purchasing power.

According to figures from Mexico’s National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV), in 2025 commercial banks originated around 1.5 trillion pesos in housing finance, a 5.5% increase versus 2024. For a market that had grown used to faster growth rates across different cycles, the number points to a cooling phase: lending is still rising, but with less momentum—partly because housing inflation, especially in high-demand urban areas, has outpaced gains in real income.

Against this backdrop, Banamex reported a housing-related loan portfolio of 80.371 billion pesos in 2025, including loans under shared schemes with Infonavit. Gonzalo Palafox, the bank’s Executive Director of Mortgages, said the institution originated 17 billion pesos in new mortgages last year and expects to grow new originations by more than 15%. The average loan size, he added, is around 2.2 million pesos, a level that highlights the market’s tilt toward higher-priced units in cities where location has become a key driver of price.

The bank’s view is that demand could regain strength as interest rates ease slightly and investment sentiment improves. In Mexico, the cost of mortgage credit typically tracks the policy-rate cycle set by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) closely: when financing gets more expensive, monthly payments rise and underwriting standards become stricter—especially for families that devote a larger share of their income to housing and transportation.

Although the start of the year kept a slow pace in loan originations, Banamex saw a pickup around March. Performance, however, remains tied to the pulse of formal employment, the path of real wages, and private investment trends—variables that shape both buyers’ confidence and the pipeline of new developments.

Vertical housing, high prices, and the affordability challenge

One of the most relevant commercial takeaways for banks is that the strongest demand is concentrated in vertical housing near employment centers, even though it tends to be the most expensive. This pattern reflects accumulated urban shifts: longer commutes, higher transportation costs, and a preference for areas with services and connectivity. The side effect is an affordability challenge: if the entry price rises faster than income, the market narrows and potential buyers are forced to extend terms, increase down payments, or look for alternatives such as co-financing, family support, or a smaller home.

For banks, mortgage origination also means managing credit risk in an economic cycle with limited expansion. With growth forecasts near the 1%–2% range and consumption tied to aggregate wage income, the industry tends to prioritize borrowers with strong credit histories and stable employment. At the same time, appetite for mortgages competes with other household financial needs—education, healthcare, consumer debt—so a gradual decline in rates can be a catalyst, but not a standalone solution if home prices keep rising due to limited supply in high-demand areas.

Looking ahead to 2026, the recovery Banamex is projecting rests on a combination of conditions: a less restrictive cost of money, signs of greater certainty for investment, and a labor market that supports repayment capacity. The rollout of tools for brokers is meant to speed up originations through more agile origination channels and a better application experience, in a business where approval speed and clear requirements affect conversion.

In perspective, Mexico’s mortgage market still has room to grow due to the structural need for housing, but its pace will depend on financial easing being matched by more well-located supply and by real incomes that don’t lag behind prices. If those pieces line up, the sector could regain momentum; if not, the market will keep moving forward, but with more selective and concentrated demand.