Mexico’s Exports Hit a Record in 2025; Manufacturing Keeps the Momentum While Energy, Agriculture, and Autos Cool Off
Mexico wrapped up 2025 with a new all-time high in the value of its merchandise exports, even amid a tougher trade environment and more frequent bouts of regulatory and tariff uncertainty. INEGI data show that shipments abroad totaled $664.837 billion U.S. dollars from January through December, a 7.6% year-over-year increase. The figure confirms that the export sector remains one of the main pillars of growth, while also highlighting uneven performance across industries.
The “bright spot” of the year was the non-oil block: non-oil exports reached $643.592 billion, up 9.3% year over year. Within that group, the biggest boost came from the rest of manufacturing—beyond the auto segment—which grew 17.3% to a total of $423.027 billion. This trend aligns with the reconfiguration of supply chains in North America, where Mexico has gained share in manufacturing tied to machinery, electrical/electronic equipment, and industrial segments benefiting from nearshoring—though at different speeds depending on region and the availability of energy, water, logistics, and human capital.
The picture turned mixed when looking at sectors that often serve as “anchors” for foreign trade. Oil exports fell 26.4% year over year to $21.245 billion, pressured by lower international prices and a smaller export volume. Beyond the annual figure, the energy performance underscores a structural challenge: the petroleum trade deficit widened and Mexico continues to import fuels in meaningful volumes, leaving the trade balance exposed to crude price shocks and operational disruptions in refining and logistics.
Agricultural exports also declined, dropping 10.8% in 2025 to $20.969 billion. For a sector that has historically helped cushion industrial slowdowns, the figure points to a difficult year driven by factors such as climate volatility, logistics costs, shifts in external demand, and health-related episodes that often disrupt shipments and export windows. In December, declines were also seen in key products, drawing attention to the resilience of agri-food supply chains that are highly integrated with the U.S. market.
Another area in focus was the auto industry. For the year, automotive exports totaled $185.791 billion, down 4.2%. While the sector remains a cornerstone of Mexico’s export profile, the results reflect a more competitive environment that is sensitive to inventory adjustments, technological shifts (electrification), and investment decisions that depend on regulatory certainty and energy infrastructure. In December, gains in the sector were marginal (0.8%), with differing performance between shipments to the United States and sales to other markets—evidence that diversification helps, but does not fully offset reliance on the North American cycle.
On the import side, Mexico purchased $664.066 billion from abroad in 2025, a 4.4% year-over-year increase. Non-oil imports rose 5.3%, while oil-related imports fell 6.6%. The breakdown confirmed the production-heavy bias of trade: intermediate goods accounted for 76.8% of the total and increased 7.2% year over year, consistent with an export manufacturing base that depends on imported inputs. By contrast, capital goods fell 8.7% ($56.245 billion), a figure often read as a sign of caution in investment in machinery and equipment—key for future productivity.
With that combination, the trade balance closed 2025 with a $771 million surplus, a turn from the $18.541 billion deficit recorded in 2024. The improvement was driven by a non-oil surplus that jumped from $2.686 billion to $26.323 billion, while the oil deficit widened to $25.552 billion. In other words, Mexico’s external balance improved, but it increasingly rests on manufacturing competitiveness and less on the energy component, which remains a vulnerable spot.
Year-end figures showed a particularly strong pace. In December 2025, exports rose to $60.651 billion, up 17.2% year over year, driven by growth in non-oil exports (19.5%). Overseas sales to the United States increased 17.9%, while those to the rest of the world grew 28.0%—a positive sign of incremental diversification, even though the U.S. market remains dominant for Mexico due to production integration, rules of origin, and logistical proximity. In the same month, imports totaled $58.221 billion (+16.7%), with a rebound in consumer goods, a read that may be tied to seasonality as well as resilient consumption in certain segments—even with relatively high interest rates and a more selective credit environment.
Looking ahead, the challenge for 2026 will be twofold: sustaining manufacturing momentum in a context of greater trade scrutiny while also addressing weaknesses on the energy front and volatility in agriculture. The exchange rate path, monetary policy, U.S. industrial demand, and Mexico’s ability to unlock infrastructure (energy, ports, rail, and customs) will be decisive in ensuring that the export record translates into investment, formal jobs, and higher domestic content in supply chains.
In sum, 2025 delivered a record in exports and a return to a trade surplus, fueled by non-auto manufacturing and a strong non-oil balance. However, the drop in oil, the pullback in agriculture, and the cooling in autos show that Mexico’s external performance is becoming more dependent on a specific set of industries and on its integration with the United States—keeping the debate open around diversification, investment, and sector resilience.
