BBVA Mexico Sees a Potential GDP Boost if Plan México Is Fully Carried Out, but Warns About Security and Informality Challenges
BBVA Mexico estimates that infrastructure could add up to 0.9 percentage points to growth—so long as execution is effective and there is certainty.
The discussion on how to break Mexico’s low-growth inertia moved back to the center of the business debate following estimates from BBVA Mexico pointing to a meaningful rebound in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if the government succeeds in delivering its public investment agenda. Specifically, the bank calculates that a fully executed federal infrastructure program—along the lines of the so-called Plan México—could add about 0.9 percentage points to economic growth, an effect that would depend both on construction momentum and on its ability to catalyze complementary private investment.
Eduardo Osuna, CEO of BBVA Mexico, told regional board members that the proposal stands out for its ambition compared with major investment plans from previous decades. However, the bank’s emphasis is not only on the size of the announcement, but on the “how”: effective bidding processes, well-designed projects, timely right-of-way acquisition, the technical capacity of project executors, and clear rules for partnerships with the private sector.
The assessment starts from a structural reality: for a quarter century, Mexico has posted expansion rates near or below 2% on average—insufficient to close social gaps, raise productivity, and strengthen tax collection without putting excessive pressure on public finances. In that context, a boost of nearly one percentage point to GDP would be material, though neither automatic nor immediate.
In the near term, the Mexican economy faces a combination of factors that shape investment: interest rates that are still high by historical standards, a manufacturing slowdown tied to external demand, and a more volatile global environment. Even with the appeal of nearshoring, the challenge is turning announcements into plants, industrial parks, logistics, energy, and human capital—on timelines compatible with the competition posed by other emerging destinations.
BBVA Mexico also noted that some projects have already been put out to bid, but that the full impact could arrive with a lag. In typical public works plans, the most significant spillover occurs when construction disbursements begin and suppliers are hired; for that reason, 2027 emerges as a key reference point for seeing more visible effects on activity, formal employment, and supply chains.
Infrastructure, Security, and Formalization: The Triangle for Raising Potential Growth
Beyond infrastructure, the bank underscored two bottlenecks that often prove harder to move from diagnosis to action: insecurity and high informality. BBVA Mexico estimates that improvements in physical and legal security could add roughly 0.5 percentage points to growth by reducing operating costs, losses from crime, spending on protection, and—above all—uncertainty in investment decisions. Legal certainty—stable rules, contract enforcement, predictable administrative processes, and regulators with clear technical criteria—is especially relevant for capital-intensive projects such as energy, transportation, and advanced manufacturing.
At the same time, informality remains one of the main drags on productivity. With a large share of workers outside the social security system and small firms operating outside the regulatory framework, the country limits tax collection, reduces access to credit, and slows technology adoption. The digitization of payments and greater financial inclusion can help make economic activity “visible” and lower transaction costs, but their impact depends on the right incentives, tax simplification, and more competition in financial services.
On the external front, North America’s trade framework remains an anchor for manufacturing and logistics investment. Expectations of continuity and certainty in regional trade rules often translate into long-term decisions, especially for automotive, electronics, aerospace, and medical device supply chains. In a world with more trade restrictions and geopolitical realignments, Mexico can capitalize on its proximity to the United States market—provided it addresses its domestic constraints.
Another factor is energy: the industrial expansion associated with nearshoring requires reliable, sufficient, and competitively priced electricity, as well as transmission and distribution infrastructure. If projects also prioritize these capabilities—along with highways, ports, customs facilities, and water—the multiplier effect can be greater because it lowers logistics costs and increases total factor productivity.
At the same time, fiscal space imposes limits. The government needs to balance public investment with budget discipline, especially when debt service costs weigh more heavily in a high-rate environment and when social demand for spending on programs and public services remains strong. Within this framework, project design, transparency in contract awards, and cost-benefit evaluation will be decisive for sustaining the confidence of investors and credit rating agencies.
Looking ahead, the critical issue will be execution: moving faster without sacrificing technical quality. If Plan México translates into completed projects, improved logistics connectivity, and better investment conditions, Mexico could raise its potential growth. But if delays, regulatory uncertainty, or a deterioration in security persist, the effect will fade and the country will remain on the moderate expansion path that has characterized the last several decades.
In short, BBVA Mexico’s estimate puts numbers to a core idea: infrastructure can be a powerful engine, but its impact depends on certainty, security, and an environment that supports formalization and productivity.
