Ebrard links blow to the CJNG to greater economic confidence; the challenge is turning it into investment and growth

The government is betting that strengthening the rule of law will improve risk perceptions and support trade and investment in Mexico.

The federal government’s economic read on the operation that ended with the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho,” was immediate: beyond the security impact, Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard argued that the action sends a positive signal abroad about the Mexican state’s ability to enforce the law—an element that influences investment, trade, and financing decisions.

In the official narrative, the message aims to reinforce the idea that Mexico can offer more predictable conditions for producing, exporting, and moving goods in a regional environment where supply-chain resilience, logistics costs, and operational continuity carry increasing weight. In particular, security has become a recurring factor in the economic relationship with the United States, not only because of its domestic agenda, but also because of its impact on North America’s business climate.

Ebrard said that, after the operation, U.S. counterparts expressed recognition of President Claudia Sheinbaum and the armed forces, which—under his framing—strengthens perceptions of Mexico as a reliable partner. That signal matters at a time when the country is competing to attract industrial investment tied to nearshoring, while also facing internal constraints: infrastructure bottlenecks, private-security costs, and disparities in the availability of energy and water in manufacturing hubs.

The minister also highlighted recent trade developments: he noted that the tariff burden was adjusted for certain goods that do not comply with the agreement’s rules, dropping to 15% from a previous 25%. For exporters, any reduction of that kind can improve margins and competitiveness, especially in sectors where cost pressures are intense and external demand is price-sensitive. In the aggregate, however, the effect will depend on the scope of the adjustment and on whether companies manage to raise regional content and regulatory compliance—an issue that has gained importance as customs reviews have become stricter.

Mexico’s economy comes into this episode with a mixed foundation: on the one hand, it maintains deep integration with the United States and a robust export platform; on the other, it has shown signs of slowing in some components of domestic demand, while fixed investment remains the variable the market watches most closely to gauge growth potential. Added to that is an environment of still-high interest rates and an exchange rate that, in bouts of strength, helps imports but can undermine competitiveness for certain exporters if the appreciation becomes persistent.

Security, country risk, and the cost of doing business

In economic terms, the impact of a high-profile security event is usually transmitted less through an “immediate change” in hard indicators and more through expectations: perceived risk, insurance premiums, plant-location decisions, and logistics costs. A credible signal of law enforcement can reduce uncertainty and, with it, the cost of doing business in industrial zones and export corridors. That said, the effect will be sustainable only if it translates into operational improvements: less extortion and theft, safer highways, fewer disruptions to activity, and stronger local institutions. For investors, the key question is not the one-off announcement, but the consistency of the strategy and its ability to stabilize productive regions.

The administration also faces a coordination challenge: the economic benefits of a better security environment become clearer when paired with trade facilitation, customs digitization, clear rules for investment, and regulatory certainty. In that equation, Mexico’s North American commitments—including rules of origin, labor verification, and input traceability—become part of the same package that defines competitiveness.

In the short run, markets and the private sector will be watching whether the episode leads to lower operational volatility in key states and whether cross-border trade flows at the northern border are preserved. In the medium run, the decisive indicator will be whether productive investment gains traction, boosting productivity and allowing integration with the United States to translate into greater domestic value added, more formal employment, and better real wages.

In sum, the government is seeking to capitalize on the message of institutional strength as an economic asset vis-à-vis the United States and other partners; the opportunity is there, but its impact will depend on sustained results that reduce risks and costs for businesses and families.