SAT Sets Historic Goal of 5.8 Trillion Pesos in 2026; Will Strengthen Tax Auditing and Customs Control
The Tax Administration Service (SAT) aims to collect 5.8 trillion pesos in 2026, a historic high backed by the Federal Revenue Law. According to the approved proposal, 57.2% of public revenues will come from taxes, compared to 34.8% seen in 2008. The Income Tax (ISR) will account for 52.5% of total tax collection, Value Added Tax (VAT) for 27.2%, and the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) for 13%.
To support this increase without broad changes to tax rates, authorities will enhance digitalization and compliance monitoring, encourage voluntary payments, conduct targeted audits, and retain ISR from digital platforms. Efforts to crack down on “ghost invoice” providers and shell companies will be strengthened through amendments to the Federal Tax Code, with a promise to focus on evasion schemes rather than compliant taxpayers. Experts nonetheless recommend verifying suppliers against the tax authority’s blacklist and keeping proof of the materiality of transactions.
On the customs front, coordination between SAT, the National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM), and the Ministry of Economy seeks to close loopholes for smuggling through deeper inspections and stricter enforcement of the Carta Porte supplement. From January through October, taxes on foreign trade posted real annual growth, boosted by changes in the treatment of low-value shipments in e-commerce and the application of tariffs on countries without a free trade agreement with Mexico—especially in sectors such as automotive, textiles, plastics, appliances, and footwear. In 2026, these levies are expected to surpass 254 billion pesos, compared to the 151.789 billion authorized for 2025.
This strategy comes in a context where the structural tax burden is low compared to similar economies—according to the OECD—and with less dependence on oil revenues than in the past. Expanding the tax base through electronic invoicing, data cross-referencing, and logistical controls has been key to raising collection without sweeping tax reforms. Meanwhile, the manufacturing boom associated with nearshoring has increased imports of capital goods and raw materials, temporarily boosting customs revenues.
Nonetheless, risks remain significant. Higher tariffs on imported inputs could translate into price increases and put cost pressure on manufacturing supply chains, especially in sectors integrated with North America. An unfavorable external environment, a slowdown in the United States, or exchange rate volatility could limit VAT and ISR growth. There’s also the ongoing challenge of not increasing the administrative compliance burden for micro and small businesses, which already face requirements such as CFDI 4.0, materiality controls, and logistical obligations tied to Carta Porte.
Regarding the IEPS, its contribution may depend on the fuel stimulus policy, which has historically been used to cushion price shocks. If these supports are scaled back, revenue collection would likely improve; if they are expanded, the opposite effect would be seen. The administration will also need to balance oversight with regulatory certainty, due process, and reasonable resolution times—key elements for investment and financial planning in companies.
For taxpayers, the message is clear: strengthen internal controls, update invoicing systems, verify the supply chain, and document transactions. In foreign trade, reviewing tariff classifications, the origin of goods, and compliance with rules for low-value shipments will be critical to avoid contingencies and take advantage of the opportunities offered by new supplier chains in the country.
In summary, the 5.8 trillion pesos target relies on collection efficiency, focused enforcement, and a boost to customs revenues. The final outcome will depend on the traction of economic activity, price stability, and the balance between control and simplification for taxpayers—factors that will define the fiscal margin in 2026.
Final note: The objective is ambitious but plausible if smart auditing is consolidated and additional administrative burdens are limited. ISR and foreign trade taxes will be the main drivers, with the IEPS as a variable sensitive to policy on fuel stimuli. The key will be to maintain certainty and competitiveness while expanding the base of compliant taxpayers.
