Soft Start to the Year: Formal Employment Falls in January and the IMSS Employer Registry Also Shrinks
The start of 2026 delivered mixed signals for Mexico’s economy: while the “January squeeze” showed up as greater pressure on household budgets—alongside a recently reported annual inflation rate of 3.79%—the formal labor market stumbled. In January, 8,104 jobs registered with the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) were lost and, at the same time, the number of registered employers declined, a relevant gauge of business formation and the dynamics of productive units.
According to the IMSS, the negative month-over-month change in employment (equivalent to -0.04%) was explained mainly by an adjustment in platform-based employment, a segment that has been undergoing regulatory and operational changes since the rollout of the framework to bring app-based workers into the social security system. The Institute itself noted that the reshuffling of jobs tied to these platforms was the central driver of the month’s net balance, in a context where the registration of these types of jobs can be more volatile due to seasonality, income thresholds, and reporting mechanisms.
Even with January’s pullback, the earnings indicator for formal employment continued to rise: the average base contribution salary came in at 662.8 pesos per day, the highest level for any month on record. The annual nominal increase was 7.3%, suggesting a labor market that, in certain segments, is still adjusting wages above observed inflation; however, the real impact depends on the path of prices and the dispersion across sectors, regions, and company sizes. In practice, growth in the average wage can coexist with a net loss of positions if job destruction is concentrated in lower-paying activities or in areas with high turnover.
The other data point that drew attention was the drop in employer registrations: as of January 31, the IMSS counted 1.023 million employers, a monthly decline of 5,842 (-0.6%). On an annual basis, the change was negative by 2.5%. The Institute attributed part of this behavior to the implementation of security measures when opening employer registrations for individuals, a policy aimed at curbing irregular practices but one that can also increase administrative friction for micro and small businesses, particularly during periods of weak demand or uncertainty.
These labor-market signals arrive after a 2025 marked by limited economic growth: GDP rose 0.7% (preliminary figure), the weakest performance since the 2020 shock. With growth that low, the room for sustained formal job creation narrows, since hiring typically depends on a more dynamic pace of activity and private investment with greater certainty. Structural challenges also persist: high informality, productivity gaps, and a global slowdown that affects exports and industrial supply chains.
At the same time, the external environment remains a major risk. Mexico is highly integrated commercially with the United States, the destination for more than four-fifths of its exports, so changes in trade policy, tariff measures, or bouts of financial volatility tend to feed through to investment, the exchange rate, and hiring decisions. On the domestic front, the outlook for consumption will depend on the combination of real wages, borrowing costs, and the inflation trajectory, while investment will hinge on regulatory certainty, nearshoring, and the availability of infrastructure and energy to absorb new projects.
Looking ahead, formal employment performance will likely depend on whether the economy can regain momentum in manufacturing, services, and construction, as well as on how the registration of platform-linked jobs stabilizes. A sustained rebound would require not only faster growth but also conditions that encourage formalization and business continuity: streamlined procedures, accessible financing for MSMEs, and clear rules for emerging sectors.
All told, January opened with a moderate loss of formal jobs and a noticeable reduction in registered employers, even as the average wage continued rising in nominal terms. The message is mixed: there are signs of resilience in pay, but also indications of cooling in job creation and in the business base, amid weak economic growth and meaningful external risks.
