Challenging Outlook: Inflation and Low Growth for 2025

Strategies in international trade and a certain fragility in the global economic activity have become the main threats to the Mexican economy, according to the Expectations Survey conducted by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). The average forecast from the specialists consulted indicates that Mexico will experience a growth of only 0.2% this year, while inflation could reach 3.9%, around the threshold set by Banxico.

For the year 2026, economic growth is anticipated to be 1.5%. Regarding external and internal factors, analysts emphasize that the most significant risk arises from trade tensions, particularly due to Donald Trump's tariff policies. This month, fears about a slowdown in global growth have increased, as noted in the survey. Recently, the World Bank urged developing nations to negotiate trade agreements with the United States as soon as possible to mitigate the impacts of the tariffs imposed by Trump. "It's crucial to reach trade agreements with the U.S. without delay," stated Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank. "If they are postponed, everyone gets affected."

The presented economic situation highlights the need to adopt policies that support stability and long-term growth. It's essential for Mexico to seek to diversify its trading partners and strengthen its domestic economy to better face external challenges. A robust economy depends not only on global circumstances but also on strategic decisions that promote local investment and innovation.