IMF Sees Global Resilience but Warns of Risks: Mexico Faces Challenge of Consolidating Finances and Boosting Productivity
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates that the global economy has fared better than initially expected, experiencing only a moderate slowdown in growth. However, the IMF emphasizes that uncertainty has now become the “new normal.” For Mexico, this combination of global resilience and persistent risks creates an environment where exports remain dynamic yet more volatile; the exchange rate is highly sensitive to external shocks; and economic policy will have to balance investment incentives with fiscal discipline.
According to the World Economic Outlook preview, global growth is projected to hover around 3% over the medium term, which is below the pace seen before the pandemic. The IMF stresses that risks remain elevated due to geoeconomic tensions, possible tariff changes, monetary policy adjustments in key economies, and public debt levels that, if current trends persist, could exceed 100% of global GDP by the end of the decade. Meanwhile, the search for safe-haven assets has increased the share of gold in official reserves to over one-fifth of the total, reflecting a strong appetite for hedging against uncertain scenarios.
On the trade front, the IMF warns that tariff volatility and trade diversion can rapidly reshape supply chains. For Mexico, which benefits from nearshoring and its integration with North America, this dynamic is a double-edged sword: it opens up opportunities in manufacturing and logistics but also exposes the country to sudden changes in rules of origin, input costs, and border crossing times. The review of the USMCA in 2026 is a milestone that requires progress in labor compliance, regulatory certainty, and energy policy to maintain the country’s competitiveness.
Domestically, Mexico’s growth is supported by manufacturing exports, construction tied to new industrial capacity, and investment in logistics corridors. Nevertheless, bottlenecks persist in electricity and water supply, as well as challenges regarding permits and the rule of law that raise project costs. Foreign direct investment has remained strong due to the relocation of production processes, but fully realizing its potential depends on closing infrastructure and workforce skills gaps.
On the monetary front, Banco de México has shifted toward a very gradual and conditional easing cycle, maintaining a still-restrictive stance to steer inflation toward target levels. Disinflation is progressing, but unevenly across components, suggesting caution is warranted. In this context, the Mexican peso remains among the most liquid emerging-market currencies, experiencing bouts of volatility tied to U.S. data releases, Federal Reserve rate expectations, and geopolitical news.
Fiscal policy is crucial. After increased spending in the previous cycle, the 2025 economic package aims for a consolidation path to stabilize debt and strengthen the country’s ability to respond to shocks. This becomes even more urgent in light of the IMF’s recommendations: increase productivity, prioritize high social return public investment, improve the quality of spending, and address contingent liabilities, including the recovery of state-owned enterprises. Credible fiscal anchoring is central to preserving Mexico’s sovereign credit rating and containing risk premiums.
Private consumption will continue to be supported by formal employment and remittances—which have reached historically high levels—but its pace could moderate if the U.S. economy loses momentum. Tourism remains an important source of foreign currency, posting solid performance in traditional destinations, though it depends on the evolution of disposable income in major source markets.
In summary, the global economy offers a firmer growth floor than had been expected a few months ago, but with lower ceilings and heavier risks. For Mexico, capitalizing on nearshoring opportunities and shielding itself from volatility will require orderly fiscal consolidation, productivity improvements, regulatory certainty, and accelerated development of energy and water infrastructure. The window of opportunity is open, but it won’t remain so indefinitely.
