Cete Yields Fall, Narrowing Their Edge Over Inflation: What It Means for Saving in 2026

Lower Cete rates, alongside still-contained inflation, are shrinking the “cushion” of real returns for savers.

Yields on Mexico’s Treasury Certificates (Cetes) moved lower again in the latest auctions, reflecting a less restrictive monetary policy backdrop and expectations that the rate-cutting cycle will continue, even as inflation remains within the target range. For retail investors, the most visible impact is that the gap between what Cetes pay and the rise in prices is getting smaller, reducing real returns.

Headline inflation ticked up to 3.79% year over year in January, according to Mexico’s statistics agency INEGI, a level that remains close to the price-stability target set by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). Still, the path of yields suggests the market is already pricing in continued monetary easing, consistent with the slowdown from the 2022–2023 inflation peaks and with economic growth that has shown bouts of cooling.

On the short end of the curve, the 28-day Cete came in at 6.84%, while the 91-day settled at 6.95%. For longer horizons, the 182-day instrument was placed at 7.11% and the 364-day Cete at 7.22%. While these rates remain above inflation, the spread has been narrowing as the market adjusts to a lower cost of money and a tighter risk premium.

This move is especially relevant in Mexico because Cetes are often the “starting point” for setting borrowing costs and for comparing low-risk saving alternatives, from bank time deposits to bond funds. When Cetes fall, the relative appeal of keeping interest-bearing cash also declines, making it more important to weigh maturities, fees, and the effective tax treatment of returns.

It’s worth recalling the basic mechanism: a Cete has a face value of 10 pesos, but it’s purchased at a discount; at maturity, the government pays the face value and the difference represents the gain. In general, these instruments’ advantages are high liquidity, transparency, and the fact that they often serve as a benchmark conservative investment for households and businesses.

Real return: the metric savers shouldn’t lose sight of

A practical way to approximate the real return is to subtract annual inflation from the instrument’s nominal yield. With inflation at 3.79% and the 28-day Cete at 6.84%, the simple arithmetic spread is about 3.05 percentage points. That difference works as a “cushion” against the loss of purchasing power, but it isn’t a guarantee: it can change if inflation picks up or if rates keep falling faster. In addition, the effective real return can be affected by taxes on interest and by reinvesting at future rates, especially at shorter maturities.

In the macroeconomic context, the balance is delicate. On one hand, lower rates can ease debt service and support consumer and business credit; on the other, if core inflation proves sticky or if there are supply shocks (for example, in food or energy), Banxico could choose to slow the pace of cuts to avoid reigniting inflation pressures. The market, in turn, adjusts the yield curve as expectations change.

For investors, the narrowing gap between Cetes and inflation also reopens the diversification conversation: laddered maturities, short- and intermediate-term bond funds, or even inflation-linked instruments, depending on risk profile. In Mexico—where a significant share of household savings remains concentrated in cash or accounts without competitive yields—comparing returns to inflation is crucial for understanding the opportunity cost of not investing.

Looking ahead, the evolution of Cetes will hinge on three key variables: the path of inflation (especially core inflation), Banxico’s tone, and overall economic activity. External factors will also matter, such as global financial volatility and liquidity conditions, which can shift risk premiums and risk appetite in emerging markets, including Mexico.

In short, Cetes continue to offer nominal yields above inflation, but the margin is shrinking as the market anticipates a lower cost of money; in this environment, real return, maturity, and reinvestment become decisive for protecting the purchasing power of savings.