Record in Foreign Trade: Manufacturing Drives October Surplus Despite Weakness in Automotive Sector
In October, Mexico recorded its highest monthly levels of both exports and imports since records began, according to Inegi. Exports totaled $66.13 billion, while imports reached $65.53 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $606 million that reversed the deficit seen in September. The outcome was driven by non-oil exports, which shifted to a positive balance and contributed a surplus of over $2.7 billion.
On an annual basis, total exports grew by 14.2% and imports by 12.8%. The main driver was manufacturing, with a 17.4% year-over-year increase in its exports. Particularly notable were surges in machinery and special equipment—with an atypical triple-digit jump partly attributed to base effects and exceptional shipments—as well as in mining and metallurgy, and electrical and electronic equipment. In contrast, the automotive sector saw a 14% drop due to lower external demand, particularly from the United States, and production line changes, which typically create temporary gaps in export calendars.
Non-oil exports to the United States, Mexico’s main trading partner, grew by 17.1% year-over-year, while shipments to the rest of the world rose 12.3%, reflecting the resilience of the manufacturing sector and the ongoing reconfiguration of global supply chains toward North America. In agriculture, performance was mixed: the value of exports fell 19.5% due to declines in beef, tomatoes, onions, and avocados, partially offset by higher shipments of frozen shrimp and seafood products. Seasonal factors, international prices, and weather conditions may have contributed to the sector’s volatility.
On the import side, there was a 15.7% increase in intermediate goods—key inputs for manufacturing production—consistent with export strength and regional integration. Imports of consumer goods rose 10.7%, while imports of capital goods slipped slightly, indicating cautious investment in production capacity despite nearshoring announcements. This contrast suggests that much of the industrial expansion is still relying on installed capacity and established supply chains.
Between January and October, the country posted a cumulative trade deficit of $2.32 billion, lower than in the same period a year earlier. This performance came amid an appreciated peso and high interest rates, factors that make dollar-priced imports cheaper and may curb export price competitiveness, but also help reduce internal inflationary pressures. At the same time, investment flows tied to manufacturing in northern Mexico and the Bajío region have sustained demand for imported inputs, while manufacturing exports to the U.S. are benefiting from the ongoing expansion of the American industrial cycle.
Going forward, the trade balance will be shaped by three main factors: the trend in U.S. demand, the pace of investment in new capacity—especially in sectors such as electrical equipment, electronics, and auto parts—and domestic bottlenecks in energy and logistics. The normalization of the automotive sector, the transition to electric vehicles, and USMCA’s regional content requirements could all reshape trade flows in the coming quarters. The prices of raw materials and the 2026 USMCA review, which keeps businesses alert to regulatory certainty, will also be highly relevant.
In summary, October confirmed the dynamism of Mexican foreign trade, with historic highs and a modest trade surplus. Manufacturing continues to drive growth, while weakness in the automotive industry and moderate capital investment point to continued uneven progress. If external demand holds up and local bottlenecks are resolved, the export sector can keep anchoring growth, though volatility from global and regulatory factors will persist.
