```html Mexico’s Tax Authority Targets Record Collections in 2026: More Enforcement, Digitization, and Tighter Customs Controls

Mexico’s Tax Administration Service (SAT) is aiming to collect roughly 5.8 trillion pesos in 2026—an unprecedented target that reflects a shift in Mexico’s fiscal policy toward greater revenue-collection efficiency, without relying—at least in principle—on broad-based rate hikes. The plan is laid out in the 2026 Federal Revenue Law, where tax revenues account for a growing share of total public resources compared with prior years.

The strategy to reach that level combines measures to simplify compliance with stricter monitoring of taxpayer obligations, targeted tweaks to consumption taxes, and a stronger crackdown on evasion. In the projected breakdown, income tax (ISR) would remain the main revenue pillar, alongside the VAT (IVA) and the excise tax (IEPS)—a structure consistent with Mexico’s current tax framework, where the burden falls mainly on domestic taxes and, to a lesser extent, on levies tied to foreign trade.

A central bet is digitization and the intensive use of data for enforcement. In recent years, the SAT has refined tools such as electronic invoicing (CFDI), payment addenda, payroll reporting, and transaction traceability, boosting its ability to detect discrepancies, sham transactions, and underreporting. For 2026, the approach deepens with new powers and operating rules focused on higher-risk transactions—particularly those tied to “invoice mills” and shell companies, which often serve as vehicles for improper deductions or unlawful tax credits.

In this context, the official message is that tougher enforcement will focus on evasion schemes rather than compliant taxpayers; even so, the environment makes proactive compliance management more important. For companies and self-employed individuals, that means strengthening internal controls: vetting suppliers, retaining proof that transactions are substantive (contracts, deliverables, logs, payments, shipping and logistics documentation), and monitoring SAT lists and notices. In an economy where enforcement increasingly relies on automated data matching, minor inconsistencies can trigger information requests, audits, or disputes.

Another key component of the revenue target is foreign trade. Coordination among the SAT, Mexico’s National Customs Agency (ANAM), and economic ministries aims to close loopholes used for smuggling and undervaluation through deeper customs inspections and tighter document tracking for shipments, including the Carta Porte waybill. At the same time, adjustments to rules for imports linked to digital platforms and parcel delivery—changing value thresholds and tax treatment—are intended to reduce arbitrage that erodes the tax base.

Revenue tied to imports and customs operations is especially relevant at a time when Mexico remains integrated into North America’s regional manufacturing and logistics chains. Nearshoring, while progressing unevenly due to constraints such as energy, water, security, and infrastructure capacity, keeps foreign trade as an engine of activity and, by extension, a source of tax revenue if customs compliance is strengthened.

For 2026, the government is also considering applying tariffs to countries that do not have a trade agreement with Mexico, with an emphasis on goods from Asia—particularly China—and on sensitive sectors such as automotive, textiles, apparel, plastics, home appliances, and footwear. Beyond the revenue effect, this measure could affect prices and margins across supply chains: if importers pass costs through, it could put upward pressure on some consumer goods; if they absorb the hit, profitability would decline. In either case, the net impact will depend on elasticities, substitution toward regional suppliers, and exchange-rate dynamics.

In the background is a broader debate about the sustainability of public finances. By international standards, Mexico’s tax take as a share of GDP remains low for an OECD country, which limits budget flexibility. In recent years, the priority has been to raise revenues through administrative efficiency and anti-evasion efforts, rather than through a sweeping tax reform. Still, the challenge of funding infrastructure, security, health care, education, and the energy transition—while addressing spending pressures and public investment commitments—could reopen the debate over the tax structure in the medium term.

Looking ahead, meeting the 2026 target will depend as much on the SAT’s and customs authorities’ operational capacity as on overall economic performance. If growth slows, collections could face headwinds; if manufacturing investment solidifies and domestic consumption holds up, the goal becomes more achievable. The key will be balancing more intensive enforcement with certainty for taxpayers, avoiding frictions that raise compliance costs or discourage formality.

In sum, the SAT’s 2026 push combines tighter digital controls, a targeted crackdown on evasion, and stronger customs enforcement alongside tariff adjustments. The revenue target looks ambitious and, if achieved, would strengthen the state’s financial capacity; the challenge will be maintaining clear rules and reasonable compliance costs so higher revenues do not translate into uncertainty for businesses and households.