Bancomext Targets 190 Billion Pesos in New Lending: Boosting Exports, Energy, and Nearshoring Despite Trade Uncertainty
In an environment where companies are still assessing risks tied to trade policy and the possibility of changes to the USMCA, Mexico’s National Bank for Foreign Trade (Bancomext) expects to extend up to 190 billion pesos in new loans during 2026—about the same amount as the prior year. The institution, a cornerstone of Mexico’s development banking system for financing exporters, aims to keep resources flowing to strategic sectors just as the Mexican economy moves through a slower-growth cycle, but with opportunities linked to the relocation of production supply chains.
According to bank executives, demand for financing eased in 2025 amid a more cautious business climate, particularly for capital-intensive projects. That view aligns with recent signals in the business cycle: private investment becoming more selective, borrowing costs still meaningful despite the start of rate cuts, and expansion plans becoming more sensitive to external demand—especially demand from the United States, Mexico’s main trading partner and the destination for most manufactured exports.
Bancomext’s lending plan is being aligned with federal government goals, in coordination with Nacional Financiera (Nafin), to support productive and infrastructure projects linked to the so-called “Plan México” and the Economic Development Poles for Well-Being. In practice, development banks often operate as catalysts: they can take on part of the risk, extend maturities, and structure guarantees to spur investment that might otherwise take longer to materialize due to market conditions or regulatory and trade uncertainty.
The loan book also points to where the effort is being directed. In 2025, Bancomext’s total outstanding portfolio was around 259 billion pesos. Within that portfolio, financing for energy projects and industrial facilities stood out—two areas directly tied to export competitiveness and the nearshoring trend. In particular, financing for industrial infrastructure is critical in northern Mexico and the Bajío region, where demand for logistics and manufacturing space has remained high, though constrained by challenges related to energy, water, security, and talent availability.
Another important line of business is tourism, which is shaping up as one of the sectors with specific projects in the lead-up to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will be hosted by Mexico, Canada, and the United States. Expectations of higher visitor flows typically translate into investment in hotels, transportation, services, and urban improvements. However, the economic impact will depend on project execution, connectivity, and the ability to increase spending per tourist, as well as perceptions of safety and the quality of offerings in host destinations and cities.
Alongside direct lending, Bancomext and Nafin are expanding guarantee programs so that SMEs can access financing through commercial banks on more competitive terms. In these programs, development banks cover a significant portion of the risk—for example, between 60% and 70%—to unlock loans that are often held back by a lack of collateral, limited credit history, or the cost of collections processes and collateral recovery. The strategy addresses a structural problem: limited access to credit for small and midsize businesses, despite their outsized role in employment and economic activity.
The emphasis on guarantees also reflects a reality of Mexico’s financial system: while banks are sound and profitable, intermediating credit to smaller segments is often costly, and prudential and operational requirements raise the barrier to entry for many companies. In that context, development banking serves as a bridge to broaden access to credit, especially within export supply chains, where integration with anchor companies can improve the risk profile and the traceability of cash flows.
In the short term, the main factor to watch will remain external conditions. A sharper slowdown in the U.S. economy would hit manufacturing, auto parts, and electronics; and any episode of greater trade friction or changes to rules of origin would increase the need for financing to cover process adjustments, certifications, and investment in installed capacity. Domestically, the performance of public and private investment, regulatory certainty in key sectors—particularly energy—and the path of interest rates and inflation will determine whether development bank lending translates into more production, exports, and formal employment.
In sum, Bancomext’s goal of extending 190 billion pesos in 2026 suggests continuity in a countercyclical strategy: sustaining financing for exports, energy, industrial facilities, tourism, and SMEs through loans and guarantees. The ultimate impact will depend on business confidence, the trade environment with the United States, and whether financed projects turn into productive investment with measurable gains in competitiveness and growth.
