Support for Pemex Increases Fiscal Pressure in 2025–2026 and Redefines Spending Priorities
The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) acknowledged that financial support for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) will be one of the main sources of public spending pressure in 2025 and 2026, as the government aims for the oil company to achieve financial self-sufficiency by 2027. The proposed budget for Pemex would increase by 17% next year, from 464.26 billion to 517.36 billion pesos, with the goal of addressing debt repayments and improving liquidity.
According to Finance Minister Édgar Amador Zamora, the company's debt expanded dramatically over the past decade: rising from $43.3 billion in 2008 to nearly $105 billion in 2019. Nearly half of the total maturities will come due during the current administration, with 26% of that amount set to be paid out between 2025 and 2026. Together, the obligations for this year and the next add up to $25.09 billion, which explains the pressure on Pemex's so-called “budgetary line.”
The increase in resources earmarked for the oil company comes as the historic balance of public sector debt—including Pemex—could reach around 20 trillion pesos in 2026, the highest level on record. While Mexico maintains a moderate debt profile compared to other emerging markets, higher debt servicing costs and support for state-owned enterprises are driving up the government’s financial burden, all within a context of still-high interest rates and exchange-rate volatility that could increase the cost of dollar-denominated obligations.
In recent years, financial support for Pemex has combined liquidity injections with a lighter tax burden. In 2023, 145 billion pesos were authorized for debt repayments and working capital. Additionally, the Shared Utility Tax—the main levy on the oil sector—was gradually reduced from 65% in 2019 to 30% in 2024. This provided Pemex some breathing room in its cash flow, albeit at the expense of non-oil federal revenues.
The government has unveiled a Comprehensive Capitalization and Financing Strategy as part of its 2025–2035 plan, which aims to reduce Pemex's debt balance by 16.1% compared to 2019 by the end of 2025, and by 26% by 2030. Achieving these goals will depend on financial discipline, the pace of production, and the operational stabilization of the refining system—including the ramp-up of the Olmeca refinery—as well as market factors like international crude prices and refining margins.
Analysts have warned that Pemex’s situation remains one of Mexico’s main fiscal risks. Credit rating agencies have underscored that Pemex's liabilities and support requirements are a key factor in the country’s sovereign outlook. A policy agenda that combines operational efficiency, a greater focus on profitable fields, management of environmental liabilities, and openness to partnership models could ease pressure and attract investment without jeopardizing state control.
This challenge is unfolding in the context of fiscal consolidation. After a high deficit in 2024, the Finance Ministry has outlined an adjustment for 2025, as the country seeks to capitalize on nearshoring with greater investment in infrastructure, energy, and security. The fiscal space is limited: increased transfers to Pemex could crowd out social or investment spending in other priority areas. Furthermore, the persistent deficit in the fuels trade balance due to fuel imports continues to weigh on the external balance.
In summary, increased support for Pemex in 2025–2026 will strengthen the company’s ability to meet critical maturities, but it will also heighten pressure on public finances. The viability of the government’s plan will depend on rigorous execution, clear signals of operational improvement, and achieving fiscal consolidation without stalling productive investment. Striking a balance between shoring up Pemex and sustaining growth will be a key challenge to watch in the coming quarters.
