Banxico Lowers Economic Growth Forecast for Mexico in 2025 Amid Uncertain International Outlook
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has revised downward its expectations for national economic growth in 2025, now projecting only a 0.1% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with a range spanning from a 0.5% contraction to a 0.7% expansion. These figures reflect a more cautious tone compared to the previous report, which anticipated growth of 0.6% for this year and 1.8% for 2026.
In its most recent quarterly report, Banxico highlights the persistent weakness in national economic activity, which faces a challenging outlook not only due to internal factors like sluggish consumption and stagnant investment levels, but also amid a complex international context. The institution notes that shifts in U.S. trade policy—Mexico’s main trading partner—pose significant challenges and increase uncertainty regarding the immediate future of Mexican productive activity.
Despite these challenges, the central bank emphasizes that, for now, the impact on Mexican exports has remained limited, thanks to the resilience displayed by some sectors in recent months. However, it warns that the high degree of global uncertainty makes it difficult to forecast various economic and employment indicators.
Regarding inflation, Banxico maintains its outlook that the index will converge toward the 3% target by the third quarter of 2025. Nevertheless, it acknowledges the challenges of ensuring that consumer prices remain aligned with the official target—a key concern in an environment of economic slowdown.
Furthermore, Banxico has lowered its forecasts for formal job creation: this year, between 110,000 and 290,000 new positions are expected to be added to the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), down from the previous estimate of between 220,000 and 420,000 jobs. For 2026, expectations are set between 270,000 and 470,000 new jobs.
This outlook, marked by lower growth expectations and slower job creation, comes at a time when the Mexican economy is also facing structural challenges—such as weak private investment, uncertainty regarding public policy direction, and the need to strengthen the domestic market. At the same time, external factors—including U.S. trade policy, developments in international interest rates, and global financial market volatility—will continue to influence national economic performance.
In short, Banxico’s more cautious forecasts reflect the uncertainty prevailing both globally and domestically. The resilience of specific sectors like exports, the evolution of inflation, and the performance of the labor market will be key factors shaping Mexico’s economic path in the coming years. In this context, sound economic and policy decisions will be crucial to avoid further slowdown and steer the country toward more sustained and balanced growth in the near future.
