SAT Exceeds Revenue Targets and Tightens Controls Against Smuggling and Fake Invoicing
Mexico’s tax collection outperformed expectations between January and September, surpassing the target by about 470 billion pesos and topping the same period last year by roughly 542 billion pesos, according to figures released by fiscal authorities. The increase was driven mainly by higher revenues tied to foreign trade and by actions to combat smuggling and tax evasion.
The Finance Ministry specified that nearly 200 billion pesos of the increase came from taxes related to import and export operations. The improvement is attributed to stricter customs controls, enhanced verification processes, intensive use of digital tools, and coordination between the Tax Administration Service (SAT) and the customs authority. According to the published data, the progress in tax collection was not due to changes in rates or fees, but rather to strengthened auditing and compliance efforts.
This result comes against a backdrop of moderating economic growth, with GDP losing steam compared to the momentum seen after the post-pandemic reopening. Even with this slowdown, cumulative tax collection has reached roughly 78% of the annual target set forth in the Federal Revenue Law, suggesting a more compliant taxpayer base and a more effective tax administration.
Looking to next year, the SAT is expected to toughen its approach toward shell companies that issue receipts for simulated transactions (EFOS) and those that deduct such invoices (EDOS). Proposed measures include shorter timelines for taxpayers to prove the legitimacy of their operations, earlier cancellation or restriction of digital invoicing certificates when noncompliance is identified, and tighter controls along supply chains. Additionally, harsher criminal penalties are being considered for structures that, while not formal taxpayers, systematically harm public finances, with respect for due process and procedural safeguards.
This tax collection drive is supported by the transition to CFDI 4.0, the Carta Porte supplement for the transportation of goods, and risk management schemes in customs. These tools are shrinking opportunities for undervaluation, technical smuggling, and the triangulation of operations. However, the private sector maintains that clear rules and predictable response times remain necessary to avoid undue impact on compliant businesses, especially in industries heavily reliant on imported inputs and capital goods.
On the macro front, inflation has been trending downward compared to its 2022–2023 peaks, while the central bank maintains a cautious stance to secure the path toward its inflation target. A relatively stable exchange rate and strong manufacturing exports continue to support economic activity, although the slowdown in the U.S. and investment normalization are introducing downside risks. In this context, strong non-oil revenues are helping to anchor the country’s fiscal trajectory.
The rebound in tax collection also coincides with a year of high budget demand, with pressures associated with infrastructure projects, social programs, and financial support for state-owned enterprises. For 2025, the planned deficit adjustment will require greater spending efficiency and continued strengthening of tax collection without hampering productive activity. Striking the right balance between enforcement and trade facilitation will be key to maintaining the momentum from nearshoring, which requires agile customs and regulatory certainty.
The message for businesses is clear: reinforce documentation of business operations, vet suppliers to avoid links with EFOS, and maintain internal controls to ensure the legitimacy of purchases and services. In foreign trade, proper tariff classification, accurate customs valuation, and clear proof of origin are becoming increasingly important. Failures in these areas can lead to tax adjustments, fines, or suspension of invoicing certificates, with immediate impacts on business operations.
In summary, the combination of stricter customs controls and the crackdown on fake invoicing explains much of the revenue overperformance. If maintained, this approach could bolster the fiscal consolidation outlook—provided due process, regulatory clarity, and trade facilitation for compliant companies are preserved.
