Cetes Maintain Positive Real Yields and Solidify Their Role as a Defensive Option for Savers
Mexican Treasury Certificates (Cetes) remain attractive for conservative investors, as they continue to offer returns that exceed inflation, according to the most recent primary auction. In an environment where monetary policy is still restrictive and price pressures—while lower than the 2022-2023 peaks—remain above the Bank of Mexico’s 3% target, these short-term government instruments serve as a low-risk option to preserve purchasing power.
Cetes are debt instruments issued by the Mexican government at a discount: investors pay less than the face value today (10 pesos per certificate) and receive the full amount at maturity, earning the difference as profit. They are typically issued for 28, 91, 182, and 364 days, and their yield reflects expectations about Banxico’s benchmark rate trajectory, anticipated inflation, and the market’s demand for liquidity.
In the latest auction, yields were mixed: 28-day Cetes yielded 7.35%, 91-day at 7.62%, 175-day at 7.73%, and one-year at 8.83%. With annual inflation around 3.5%—as reported by Inegi in the relevant period—all maturities showed positive real yields, with the 12-month term being the highest. To estimate real returns simply, analysts often subtract inflation from the nominal yield. For example, 7.35% minus 3.49% yields an approximate real return of 3.86% for the 28-day Cetes. This is an estimate; the final result depends on reinvestment, time horizon, and applicable taxes.
The appeal of Cetes also stems from their low credit risk and high liquidity. However, they are not without risks: if rates start to fall, reinvestment returns may decline (reinvestment risk); and if sold before maturity, market prices can fluctuate. For those looking to hedge against rising prices, Udibonos—bonds indexed to inflation—offer a complementary alternative, while Bonos M and Bondes F provide exposure to longer maturities or variable rates.
Looking ahead to the coming months, three main factors will drive Cetes performance: local inflation trends, Banxico’s decisions, and the tone set by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A sustained drop in inflation would open the door to gradual rate cuts, potentially lowering future yields. Conversely, inflation surprises in services or external shocks (exchange rate, energy prices) would keep rates higher for longer.
For retail savers, platforms like Cetesdirecto make it possible to invest with small amounts and build “ladders” of maturities to balance liquidity and returns. It’s important to compare different terms, consider the tax implications, and align strategy with cash needs, risk tolerance, and time goals.
In summary, Cetes continue to offer positive real yields and a straightforward way to safeguard savings in an uncertain environment. Their performance depends on inflation and monetary policy, so actively managing duration and reinvestment will be key to maintaining competitive returns with limited risk.
