Banking Optimism Amidst the USMCA and Legal Framework

The major banking institutions in Mexico are paying close attention to the uncertainty caused by tensions with their most important trading partner: the United States. However, they agree that these are temporary issues that will be resolved soon, especially with an early renegotiation of the USMCA. This trade agreement is set to be reviewed in 2026, but bankers anticipate it could be finalized this year to minimize the volatility and uncertainty in the economy.

During an interview with Expansión ahead of the 88th Banking Convention, set to take place on May 8 and 9, leaders from major financial entities agreed that the country has a strong foundation that represents an opportunity, despite marked volatility in the first part of 2025. To maintain its strength amid uncertainty and continue demonstrating its characteristic resilience, they emphasize the need to uphold the USMCA and seize growth opportunities in the region, as well as to continue projects and ensure at least a clear framework of rules from the government. A positive note is that the Mexican economy managed to avoid a technical recession in the first quarter of 2025, with a 0.2% growth in its Gross Domestic Product, following a contraction of 0.6% in the last quarter of 2024. "We see a solid country. Mexico is resilient, even in the face of headwinds to economic growth in North America," states Jorge Arce, CEO of HSBC Mexico, the fifth-largest bank by assets. "Our clients are cautious, but in a robust and healthy situation," he adds. The bank's net income as of March 31 of this year reached 2.713 billion pesos, a 33% increase compared to the same period in 2024. For BBVA, the largest bank by assets in the country, it is vital that infrastructure plans continue so that the national economy can progress. "By supporting our clients' projects, we promote economic circulation in the country," comments Eduardo Osuna, the entity's CEO. By the end of 2024, BBVA Mexico's assets amounted to approximately 3.27 trillion pesos, a 31.4% increase compared to the 2.48 trillion of the previous year. For Santander Mexico, instability and doubt are not cause for alarm. The second-largest entity by assets in the country believes that, despite the noise and uncertainty, there is an opportunity on the other side. "It is our responsibility as financial institutions to remain calm and closely monitor day-to-day events," asserts its CEO, Felipe García Ascencio. Banco Santander Mexico reported a loan portfolio exceeding 926.3 billion pesos in the first quarter of 2025 and a profit of over 7.4 billion pesos, representing a growth of 7.8% compared to the same period last year.

Opportunity May Outweigh Challenges According to Banco Base and Invex, two banks focused on business needs, this phase of volatility is more of a transitional period. "Once clear rules on tariffs are established, the USMCA can be anticipated and an agreement can be reached. At that point, I foresee a recovery of foreign investment in Mexico, including from Tesla," expresses Julio Escandón, director of Banco BASE. He adds that companies are making decisions that go beyond the administration of Donald Trump. "Mexico's destiny is to become an investment hub due to its proximity to the United States," he notes. Invex goes even further. Where others see risks, they view it as a moment to increase credit, especially looking toward 2026. For these projects to develop, the government must emit signals of certainty that facilitate job creation and, as a result, boost consumption. Invex has 900,000 credit card customers, ranking it among the top 10 issuers in the country. Meanwhile, BASE serves 10,000 business clients, mostly small and medium enterprises, particularly in the exporting sector. "The primary goal we must address is to create conditions of certainty that allow us to recover vigorous growth in private investment in the country," emphasizes Manuel Romo, CEO of Banamex. A recent study by Banco de México among experts from the private sector revealed that problems in the national economy persist, although they have been gradually easing. The lack of rule of law was mentioned by 7% of respondents, with uncertainty about internal politics also at 7%, while internal economic uncertainty accounted for 5% of opinions. These percentages are lower compared to other concerns, such as foreign trade policy, which received 23%, and public insecurity, at 15%. The 88th Banking Convention, which will be held in Puerto Vallarta, will discuss the trajectory of the Mexican economy, external challenges, and other issues such as inclusion and digitalization in banking.

It is essential to remember that a robust economy depends not only on political decisions but also on the adaptability and foresight of financial institutions. With a solid strategy and support from stable economic policies, Mexico has the potential to become a key investment hub in North America, which could translate into sustained growth and job creation. The key will be in how uncertainty is navigated and opportunities are seized on the horizon.