Tax Revenue and Austerity in the First Semester of Claudia Sheinbaum

During the first six months of Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, the government revenues exceeded initial projections due to increased tax collection, while public spending fell short of estimates. Between October of last year and March 2025, reductions were recorded in nearly all areas of spending, totaling 87.158 billion pesos less than anticipated, with a particularly notable shortfall of 178.150 billion in the first quarter of 2025.

The focus shifted towards cuts in Autonomous Entities and federal agencies, such as National Defense, Communications and Transportation, Health, and Citizen Security and Protection, which reflected the largest discrepancies with reductions starting in late 2024. In the words of Bertha Gómez Castro, Undersecretary of Expenditures at the Ministry of Finance, "spending has not been cut; it has been adjusted to meet the objectives and goals for 2025, and the approved budget is what is necessary to achieve those objectives and goals. We are not considering or proposing additional cuts to spending. What was approved is being monitored to ensure that every peso spent contributes to meeting those goals.” Meanwhile, from October 2024 to March 2025, public revenues grew by 101.550 billion pesos compared to what was agreed upon, despite a drop of 189.523 billion in oil-related revenues. The compensation came from the tax sector, which generated 49.590 billion pesos more than expected, according to the Ministry of Finance. “We have taken significant actions that have led us to these results, promoting activities that increase collection and simplifying processes to make it easier for taxpayers to fulfill their tax obligations,” commented Carlos Lerma, Undersecretary of Revenue at the Ministry of Finance. Additionally, various measures have been implemented to mitigate tax evasion and avoidance, which impact public finances. “We are not satisfied; we are aware of the expectations the president has for the population, so we need to promote the generation of more revenue that addresses both social programs and the investment projects of the federal government,” Lerma added.

This economic outlook highlights the importance of strengthening tax collection while establishing efficient public spending. Prudential management of finances can contribute to the economic and social sustainability of the country and reflects a focus on the well-being of the population by prioritizing programs that create a real impact. The challenge lies in maintaining a responsible fiscal policy that not only aims to increase revenues but also ensures transparency and accountability in the use of public resources.