Mexico Strengthens Leadership as Supplier of Goods to the U.S. Amid Global Trade Tensions
The trade landscape among the United States, China, and Mexico has undergone significant shifts following the escalation of the tariff war launched by former President Donald Trump in 2018. These measures have redefined the structure of international commerce, opening new opportunities for Mexico, which, over the past year, has established itself as the main trading partner of the world’s largest economy, overtaking China as the top source of U.S. imports.
According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, between January and May 2025, U.S. imports of Mexican products reached $219.51 billion, easily surpassing those from China, which totaled $148.53 billion. The gap between the two suppliers widened dramatically, from $42.47 billion during the same period in 2024 to $70.98 billion a year later. Currently, Mexico accounts for 14.6% of total U.S. imports, while China’s share has dropped to 9.9%.
These figures are largely explained by the tightening of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, which reached as high as 145% in some cases, although recent agreements have brought them down to 55%. Despite this moderation, the trade relationship remains highly uncertain, with the possibility of new rounds of tariffs if political tensions persist. While Mexico is subject to some specific tariffs, it operates under the protection of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), giving it an edge over its Asian competitor. However, certain sectors—especially steel—face 50% tariffs and are in ongoing negotiations to reduce this impact.
In this context, the push for nearshoring and the U.S. need to diversify its supply base have contributed to the strengthening of the Mexican economy. International companies continue to relocate manufacturing processes to Mexico, where they benefit from lower logistical costs, preferential market access, and an increasingly skilled workforce. These conditions have led to a rise in formal employment, greater inflows of foreign direct investment, and the development of value chains in key sectors such as automotive, electronics, and machinery.
Nevertheless, Mexico’s export success brings important challenges. An analysis by the China-Mexico Studies Center (Cechimex) at UNAM, led by Enrique Dussel Peters, warns that a significant portion of Mexican exports to the U.S. include Chinese-origin inputs, technology, and components. According to the study, Chinese value-added content in Mexican exports stands at 7.5%, revealing a structural presence of Asia in Mexico’s production chains.
This dynamic has raised concerns in Washington over the possibility that Mexico could serve as an indirect channel for Chinese goods entering the U.S. market. Global companies like General Motors, Ford, and IBM assemble goods in Mexico using parts imported from Asia, promoting regional integration but also complicating compliance with the USMCA’s rules of origin. According to Mexico’s Secretariat of Economy, about 70% of Mexico’s imports of Chinese inputs are carried out by U.S. companies operating in Mexico.
Looking ahead, this scenario presents challenges for Mexican trade policy. The country will need to strengthen its industrial capabilities to increase domestic content in exports, improve traceability in production chains, and anticipate potential changes in trade agreements, especially if U.S. pressure mounts for greater reshoring of manufacturing. Mexico also faces the challenge of upgrading its infrastructure, streamlining customs procedures, and maintaining macroeconomic stability to continue attracting investment in the current global environment.
In summary, Mexico is consolidating itself as an essential partner in North American trade, driven by restrictions on China and its integration under the USMCA. However, the complexity of global supply chains and the growing demand for local content in Mexican exports require ongoing strategic attention to maintain competitiveness and fully seize this window of opportunity.
Mexico’s rise as a leading exporter to the United States is the result of both international policies and its increasing manufacturing capacity and regional integration. The coming years will be key to solidifying this position, addressing challenges related to the origin of inputs, and responding adaptively to changes in the global trade landscape.
